Presidential Politics, Fifteen Months Out
I’ve been thinking about the 2024 race for president. This probably indicates I spend too much time reading the news, much of which is depressing.
*Joe Biden is 80. He’ll turn 81 in November. As the sitting president, he’s the presumptive Democratic nominee.
*Donald Trump is 77, with a birthday in June. Polls show the former president far ahead of his Republican rivals. Fifteen months ahead of the election, the most likely scenario points to a choice between Biden and Trump.
*Biden’s health is a worry. The greatest threat to his renomination lies in the possibility he suffers a stroke or some other debilitating condition in the next twelve months. The odds are even higher that he could die or suffer debilitation while in office, should he win a second term. Trump’s health concerns are smaller, but not nearly zero.
*Trump has been indicted in three different jurisdictions: in New York for making and lying about hush money payments to a porn star; in Florida for keeping classified documents (including highly classified military and diplomatic documents) and then hiding them when the authorities asked for them; and in Washington, D.C. for trying to subvert an election he had lost. The documents case is strongest, not relying on controversial legal theories (the New York indictment) or proving a conspiracy to subvert the election if Trump believed he had won. (Trump will argue that he believed he had won and his efforts to overturn the election were heroic attempts to overcome fraud.)
*Trump’s supporters gleefully (and hypocritically) point to Hunter Biden’s legal woes. The president’s son has committed various crimes; we can say this definitively because Hunter Biden agreed to plead guilty to lesser crimes to avoid felony trial, a plea deal that collapsed in court. Hunter Biden will almost certainly be convicted in court, unless a new plea bargain can be reached. All the while, Trump’s supporters allege that prosecutors are taking a soft line with the younger Biden because of his father’s influence. President Biden repeatedly has said that he has not influenced the Department of Justice treatment of Hunter Biden. For all I know, this is true, but the appearance of evil is a damaging thing in politics.
*If elected, Trump will be tempted to pardon himself. No matter how fraught the legal controversy this would create, Trump is enough of an egotist to do it. Creating the greatest Constitutional crisis since the Civil War would not deter him. He would bask in the adulation of his fans and relish the vitriol of Constitutional scholars.
*Biden seems committed to retaining Kamala Harris as his vice president. He needn’t; other presidents have switched VPs mid-stream. Roosevelt chose Harry Truman for VP in 1944. Kamala Harris has done little while VP to suggest she could rise to the occasion if Biden suffers a major stroke during the election campaign or dies in his second term. Of course, the same could be said of most vice presidents.
*Harris seems to be a doctrinaire “progressive” Democrat. It’s possible that she would, as president, pursue a moderate or bi-partisan approach to governing. I wouldn’t count on it, but it might be the best hope we’ve got.
*Mike Pence is running against Trump, so there is no chance Trump will choose him again as running mate. Recently, Trump has been quoted as saying Pence was “too honest” during the crucial weeks leading up to January 6, 2021. This time Trump will choose his VP more carefully, demanding a level of loyalty approaching toadyism. The choice may appall Democrats and Independents, but it will be celebrated by Trump’s base.
*Recent widely publicized polls show Biden and Trump both at 43% of likely voters. I don’t think that will hold. There is still a small percentage of genuinely undecided voters, maybe 10% of likely voters. For many such voters, Trump’s conviction on some of the charges against him—and the evidence underlying that conviction—will decide the issue.
My summary: (1) There is a significant chance (35-40%) that Trump will be elected in 2024. (That is odd of Trump winning, not his percentage of the vote. Trump will win more 40% of the popular vote. He could win election with 48-49% of the vote, because of the way Democrats concentrate their voters geographically.) Economic developments and world affairs could turn enough voters against Biden. If Biden suffers stroke or other disability in the weeks before the election, that also could elect Trump. (2) There is a greater chance (60-65%) that Biden will be elected in 2024. Trump is not going to win over the undecideds; he needs Biden to lose them through recession or disability. (3) There is a significant chance (25-30%) that Biden, if elected, will not serve a complete second term, which means the odds of Kamala Harris serving as president before election day 2028 are about 15% (60% x 25%). The odds of Trump’s VP becoming president before the 2028 election are 5% or less. Physically, Trump is healthier than Biden.
