Authoritarian Worries

  

Presidents on the Precipice

            Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, started a war against Ukraine four years ago, in early 2022.  Donald Trump, President of the United States, started a war against Iran four months ago, earlier this year.  I’m sure each president consulted advisors before ordering his military to attack, but the responsibility for the decision to attack belongs squarely with the presidents. 

            Putin is an authoritarian ruler.  His authority in Russia has almost nothing to do with elections or the will of the people.  He will never be voted out of office.  He will rule until he dies or some conspiracy of powerful people throw him out.  After all, there are powerful people in Russia—heads of government agencies, leaders of important industries, military commanders, and others—and without these people Putin could not control his country.  An authoritarian needs lieutenants to execute his policies.  He must always be worried that some of his underlings might conspire against him.

            Trump wants to be an authoritarian ruler, which is why he admires Putin.  In Trump’s word, Putin is “strong.”  I suspect this means that Trump sees that Putin makes decisions and then forces other people to accept the consequences of his decisions.  Putin consults advisors, but the decision belongs to him.  Trump wishes he had such power, and he resents Congress and the courts because the other branches of government impede his use of power.

            In many areas, such as trade policy, monetary policy, immigration policy, and taxation, Trump has tried to act via executive orders or by publicly criticizing independent government officials.  When the Senate seems slow to approve his nominees to head various government agencies, Trump makes liberal use of “temporary” appointments.  On social media he complains frequently about Democrats and “liberal” judges who obstruct his decisions.

Since the Constitution makes the U.S. President Commander-in-Chief of the armed forces, Trump is less constrained when it comes to making war.  The War Powers Act allows the President to use military force in an emergency, and presidents of both parties have claimed emergency justification for attacking enemies.  But the War Powers Act also requires the President to seek Congressional approval for wars that last more than a few months.  To get around this requirement, Trump declared a “cease-fire” in his war on Iran.  The so-called “cease-fire” is a sham.

The true authoritarian and the wannabe authoritarian both face one of the oldest lessons of war: you can’t predict, going in, how the war will fall out.  Once you let lose the dogs of war, look out!  They can bite you.

After four years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ground down.  (I have no special information.  All I know is what I read in the papers.)  Many thousands of soldiers and civilians have died without substantially moving the front line in the last three years.  New weapons, in particular drone aircraft, have changed warfighting in ways no one predicted.  With drones, the Ukrainians can strike targets far behind the front lines, and compared to Russia’s strategic missiles drones are cheap.

Trump’s war on Iran has also produced unwanted surprises.  Trump may have thought, going in, that he could create regime change by killing important Iranian leaders.  But Iran and its military are controlled by the Revolutionary Guard.  I don’t think Trump understand the mindset of true believers.  The Revolutionary Guard may only comprise one or two percent of the Iranian population, but they have the guns, and they are dedicated to the authority and rightness of the revolution.  And the war has shown them, if they did not know it before, that they hold a “card” (to use a word Trump likes to use) of vast power: by closing the Strait of Hormuz, they can greatly harm economies around the world.

Both presidents are on the precipice.  Each started his war, and each now finds himself close to losing it.  Each would like to find a way to declare victory and get out, but the whole world can see the truth.  You don’t have to be a peacemaker to see both wars were foolish.

Unfortunately, authoritarians on the precipice present great danger to the rest of us.  The temptation to hit harder, to use even more force, is right there.  May God help us.