Nicolas Maduro and Donald Trump
Four days ago, President Trump ordered the US military to execute a plan, months in the making, to capture Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, and his wife, Cilia Flores de Maduro. From Trump’s point of view, the operation succeeded wonderfully. Maduro and Flores were captured and taken to New York, where they appeared in court yesterday, without any fatalities among the US soldiers, airmen or sailors. At least 50—probably more than 60—Venezuelan and Cuban fighters were killed.
It’s significant that many of the dead were Cubans. Apparently, the Venezuelan military and security forces are so weak/disorganized that Maduro had to rely on Cuban security personnel. This is only one indicator of Maduro’s incompetence.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves. But the Venezuelan oil industry is a shambles, partly because of US sanctions but largely because of top-down mismanagement. Poverty in Venezuela is so bad that as much as a fifth of the population has fled the country in the last two decades, most of them heading for the United States. Trump’s anti-immigrant policies are aimed at many refugee groups, Venezuelans among them.
Maduro’s official title, which he reiterated in court yesterday, is “President” of Venezuela. In reality, he was a dictator, propped up by the military and security personnel (many of them from Cuba), and money from China. By all outside accounts, Maduro lost the most recent election resoundingly, but the apparatus of the state, including captive “news” media, proclaimed him the victor. His opponents fled the country to avoid imprisonment.
Under Hugo Chavez (president before Maduro) and Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela has become a textbook example of state-run industrial failure, leading to poverty and repression. Understandably, then, many Venezuelan expatriates rejoiced at the news of his fall. But it’s not at all clear what Venezuela’s future will be.
Trump says the US will “run” Venezuela, US oil companies will invest heavily in the country, and prosperity will return. The result, according to Trump: profits for the oil companies and a better standard of life for Venezuelans. That, I suppose, is possible. But all the machinery of the state is still what it was a month ago. Will the people who have administered Maduro’s policies (judges, military and security forces, legislators, bureaucrats at all levels) suddenly change their ways? What foreign companies, even oil giants, will invest in Venezuela if they don’t?
Trump’s official excuse for taking Maduro is the accusation that Maduro aided and abetted drug cartels which made “war” on the US. So, depending on the day or hour, Trump’s defense of his decision vacillates: on the one hand, it was just a law enforcement raid in which the US military helped arrest an accused criminal; on the other hand, it was a wartime attack against an invading force. The latter reasoning was prominent in the months leading up to Maduro’s capture, as Trump and his enablers justified deadly attacks on alleged drug boats. It’s okay, apparently, to kill enemy soldiers/sailors in a time of war. You don’t have to prove anything or give the enemy a chance to defend himself in court. Just kill him. Now that Maduro and Flores are in US custody, the reasoning switches. They are international criminals.
Of course, Trump could claim that both reasons apply. Maduro is both a criminal and an enemy combatant. But if that’s the case, why didn’t we just kill him? Need I point out that Maduro is wealthy? Two months ago, Trump pardoned the ex-president of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was convicted of directing one of the biggest and most vicious drug trafficking conspiracies in the world. My advice to Maduro and Flores: suck up to Trump. Don’t protest your prison sentence. Be quiet. You may never get to rule Venezuela again, but you can get out of prison before Trump’s term ends.
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