Presidential Politics, Four Months Out
A week ago, June 27, Joe Biden and Donald Trump engaged in their first debate of the 2024 campaign. President Biden performed poorly, strongly reinforcing the widespread belief that he is no longer mentally sharp enough to serve effectively as president. If he were to win reelection and serve four years, Biden would be 86 before the end of his presidency. Post-debate polls say that large majorities (more that 60%) of those who watched the debate do not think Biden is up to the job. Few debate observers, perhaps less than 25%, believe Biden would be an effective president four years from now.
Eleven months ago, I summarized my reflections on the race thusly: (1) There is a significant chance (35-40%) that Trump will be elected in 2024. And: (2) There is a greater chance (60-65%) that Biden will be elected in 2024. Obviously, such prognostications are subject to change, as events—events of many kinds, from Supreme Court decisions to foreign wars—change the political landscape. My estimate of Trump-Biden 2024 has changed greatly.
Before the debate, the polling consensus pointed to an extremely close election, with Trump leading Biden in most of the “swing” states by tiny margins. It seems that Trump’s chances of winning the election had risen from the 35-40% range to a 50-53% range. Why? Events: the Hamas/Israel war (which pulled some progressives away from Biden’s strong and traditional Democratic support for Israel), lingering inflation worries, and continued anxiety about undocumented immigrants. (Significantly, Trump pushed congressional Republicans to scuttle a bi-partisan reform of immigration law. Trump would rather use “the border crisis” as a campaign bludgeon than allow Biden to sign a reform law.)
So: even before the debate, the tide was moving in Trump’s direction.
Post-debate polls give Trump a bigger margin in the swing states, somewhere between 3% and 6%. If the election were held today, Biden might win the popular vote, but it would be extremely close. Republicans have a built-in advantage when it comes to the Electoral College; if the election were held today, Trump’s odds of winning are probably around 75%. Remember, the U.S. is deeply polarized. At least 40 states are safely “red” or “blue.” Apart from a genuine landslide, the outcome of the election will rest on a handful of swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada.
Democratic party leaders know all this. In the week since the debate, three Democratic congressmen have called for Biden to step aside from the campaign. The New York Times and many other publications have editorialized the same. There is a storm of controversy going on among Democrat donors, organizers, and politicians. The decision, of course, can only be made by President Biden.
Theoretically, Biden could repair the damage of his debate performance. He could meet repeatedly with the press in unscripted settings. If, in such “live” settings, he showed himself able to think incisively and speak clearly—not just once or twice, but a dozen times before the election—he could reverse the popular picture of a “well-meaning man with a poor memory” (the words of the special prosecutor who chose not to indict Biden for his handling of government secret documents). I say “theoretically” because I do not believe Biden could do it. He is not “senile,” as right-wing pundits are saying, but he is not as mentally able as he was 25 years ago. The stumbling, rambling Biden of the debate is just as much the real Biden as the man we often see reading from a teleprompter.
If Biden did withdraw, we would be in historically uncharted waters. It would be difficult, though not impossible, for the Democrats to nominate and unite behind some other candidate. But the newcomer would enter the race with many handicaps. With or without Biden, the Democratic candidate will be an underdog for the fall.
Trump did not win the debate; Biden lost it. The practical result is the same in either case. Trump’s chances of winning the election are high. and the Democrats can’t do anything about it. Trump, of course, could throw away his advantage. For now, though, it seems the election is his to lose.
What should we expect from Trump’s return to the White House? That’s the question Americans should be considering.
